Conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon advancing further into peninsular India, and it could reach Mumbai in the next four days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

Rains arrived in Kerala on May 29, ahead of the usual June 1 landing on the coast. The weather department said total monsoon rainfall is 42% below the long-period average (LPA) in the June 1-8 period and 94% down for northwest India.

“There is no delay in progress of monsoon. It is likely to reach Maharashtra in the next two days and cover Mumbai in the subsequent two days,” said senior IMD scientist RK Jenamani. “We have strong monsoon features – strong winds and clouds have started developing – for the next two days.”

The North East and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim could witness intense rainfall in the next five days, IMD said. The monsoon could move into more parts of Goa, parts of south Maharashtra, more areas of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, parts of south Andhra Pradesh and more of west-central and northwest Bay of Bengal during the next two days.

Early Deficit

“All India cumulative rainfall… (June 1-8) is -42%, and over northwest India, it is below LPA by -94%,” IMD said in a release.

Private weather forecasting firm Skymet said cumulative pan-India rainfall for the first eight days of June 2022 is among the lowest in the recent past. The deficit for Kerala is 58% for the June 1-9 period, according to Skymet.

IMD has predicted a normal monsoon this year, with rainfall at 103% of the long-period average.

No significant change in maximum temperatures is expected in central India and the rest of the country in the next 48 hours, IMD said. There are heatwave conditions in most of the north and no major relief from high temperatures is seen in NCR until June 15.

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