Wed. Jun 19th, 2024

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Exceptionalism at its best

By Mahesh Limbani Apr 8, 2024

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke a lot of pots on Friday after the US Jobs Report came in with a stellar performance.

Questions will start to grow further now among traders if those awaited Fed rate cuts will be coming, and the answer will be: probably not.

Certainly, June looks more and more likely not to be the moment, which means a repricing to later 2024 or even 2025.

Speculation of delayed rate cuts should coincide with a bit more US Dollar strength as all other major central banks are getting ready to cut.

That first pivotal level for the DXY comes in at 104.60, which got broken last week on Wednesday to the downside, though broken up again from below on Friday.

Further up, 105.12 is the key point after the DXY failed to break that level last week. Once above there, 105.88 is the last resistance point for now before the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will trade in overbought levels. 

Supports from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.81, the 100-day SMA at 103.43, and the 55-day SMA at 103.89 have shown their importance last week on Wednesday.

Further down, the 103.00 big figure looks to remain unchallenged for longer with ample support thus standing in the way. 

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